Would-be Buyers, Have you missed the Low?

[HPark]

Some may be beginning to wonder that, if:

1/
HK Property stocks, as shown in the chart originally posted by DrBubb, continue to rise


2/
More articles like this one from today's SCMP start appearing

SHKP sales inspire rival developers
Strong demand for new projects boosts sentiment...

(A line from the end of the article):
"Owners have shown they plan to stand firm in their asking prices and it will take time for potential buyers to accept a smaller discount than a month ago."

[HPark]

HSBC raised mortgage rates (for new loans) by cutting the discount to prime,
and that brought a setback in Hong Kong property stocks.

But the market has now overcome that, and the Hang Seng Property Index broke through
the moving average today.



For those who find the chart above too complicated, here's the 5-day version


That shows a move from under 15,000 to about 17,600 only in these few days.
That's a good move, and it means the potential buyers are overcoming their fears.
That's for Property shares.  Let's see how long it takes to spill over into the physical market.
Time to raise those offers?

[Zorro]

Yes I think we have seen the bottom on hk. My clietns are now buying so take ya pik.... if u have jiuce have a go, if u dont, just carry on pissing and playing with the steam... 

[HPark]

Alot of the bad news is out, and the market seems to have stopped falling

HPI is firm again today


...approaching 19,000 with HSI near 16,000.
That's a rather big move for just one week.

[HPark]

Big correction today.

Is it just GM news driven, or is something worse ahead?
We will see

[MacauVillager]

Big correction today.

Is it just GM news driven, or is something worse ahead?
We will see

Just profit taking drop, made steeper by GM.
This is a traders market now, have decided to buy warrants not stocks now (having  sold all stocks on Wed). After selling all stocks, almost bot put warrants yesterday at peak of market, but missed target by about 3%. If I did it I would've made 150% if I did.
14500 was approx 50% retrenchment (so buy signal) (ie peak 15800-13000=2800). So lunch made U turn and bot call warrants just above this level today. Was up 60% at within hour as market recovered, tho it dipped back down.
With market this volatile, trading is way to play, and warrants increase risk/reward Market beginning to stablise (hence no longer buying stocks for long term now as volatility now less, unless it dips back to 13ks).
At near 15.8k on Thurs, with no good news in sight til prob Jan earliest), yesterday would've been good day to exit. Sell hi, buy low. This is til we do begin to get less worse figures (in Jan ?) for any real sustained recovery (to 18k)... otherwise buy only when it dips big.

[DrBubb]

Missed the low?

If you look at the property indices, they are showing signs of stabilisation:

08/02/2008 : 124 : 268 : 70.81 : 67.59 : 69.xx .. ==== / $3,194 (testing lows again!)
08/09/2008 : 112 : 224 : 70.46 : 67.24 : 69.09 .. 65.05 / $2,870
08/16/2008 : 107 : xxx : 70.49 : 67.31 : 68.99 .. 65.27 / $3,140
08/23/2008 : 104 : 157 : 70.13 : 66.92 : 68.83 .. 65.48 / $3,265
08/30/2008 : 123 : 212 : 69.94 : 66.86 : 68.74 .. 65.70 / $3,097
09/06/2008 : 121 : xxx : 68.93 : 65.93 : 68.59 .. 65.89 / $2,974 (testing again...)
09/15/2008 : 098 : xxx : 68.40 : 65.44 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,070e
09/22/2008 : 083 : xxx : 68.26 : 65.26 : / $3,192
09/29/2008 : 080 : 329 : 67.52 : 64.46 : / $3,160
10/06/2008 : 084 : 391 : 67.44 : 64.61 : / $3,097 : Black Oct. week
10/13/2008 : 104 : xxx : 66.27 : 63.79 : / $3,159
10/20/2008 : 090 : 422 : 64.64 : 62.01 : / $2,925
10/27/2008 : 113 : xxx : 63.40 : 60.94 : / $2,950e
11/03/2008 : 132 : xxx : 61.61 : 59.09 : / $2,984
11/10/2008 : 157 : xxx : 59.93 : 57.94 : / $2,642
11/17/2008 : 129 : 465 : 57.43 : 55.41 : / $2,609
11/24/2008 : 102 : 337 : 57.00 : 55.03 : / $2,496
12/01/2008 : xxx : xxxx : 56.92 : 54.99 : / $2,500e
12/08/2008 : xxx : xxxx : 57.15 : 55.19 : / $2,512

Also,
I think most of the transactions now are in "lower value flats"
on lower floors, and with mountain views, since buyers are looking
for Bargains (in $ per Sq.Ft.) and sellers dont want to let their
high floor/ or seaview flats go at low prices.

[Zorro]

Pret,

What do u mean nothing really changes... last week u were moonie were u not? Like the mug shot... who is it?

[Zorro]

Haha... just hope the poor blighter whose picture you have taken doesnt find out and come looking for you.... 

[DrBubb]

(from GEI, which is getting interesting posts on Property)

QUOTE / 'wisbechlad'
You are more optimistic than I!  There's a flat on in Treguntur (same size and tower, but lower floor) at 23.6 asking, so luxury is still dropping I'ld say
UNQUOTE

Those Tregunter sales are driven mainly by the troubles of one man: Robert Kuok, who has suddenly started dumping several flats.  Apparently, on one he had a higher offer, but took the lower bid because the Buyer could pay him quickly.

The lower end is firming.  People are beginning to chase some of the better flats in mass market developments.

For example: in Caribbean Coast, for the last 3-4 weeks, only the "cheap flats" on lower floors, at low prices per square foot were selling, and so the Centaline index was moving like this:

Week Ending CCLI : MMIdx / Carib.C
11/10/2008 : 59.93 : 57.94 / $2,642
11/17/2008 : 57.43 : 55.41 / $2,609
11/24/2008 : 57.00 : 55.03 / $2,496
12/01/2008 : 56.92 : 54.99 / $2,500e
12/08/2008 : 57.15 : 55.19 / $2,512

Now, in the last few days, people have started to bid on better quality flats on higher floors.  Agents told me over the weekend that 2-3 flats have recently been sold at over $3,000 per sq.ft.  And so the next reported index to be released on Friday of this week is likely to be higher.

[HPark]

The Hang Seng Property index keeps climbing
[/

But only a small uptick in Caribbean Coast prices so far

11/24/2008 :: 57.00 : 55.03 / $2,496
12/01/2008 :: 56.92 : 54.99  / $2,500e
12/08/2008 :: 57.15 : 55.19  / $2,512
12/15/2008 : : 56.71 : 54.77 / $2,541

I'm hearing from the agents that many are looking, but they are still trying to deal at very low prices.  Sellers are resisting cutting any more, so let's see what comes next.

Some cheaper areas, like Gold Coast, are still holding onto last year's gains


While Caribbean Coast seems to have found a support point

[HPark]

Hang Seng index started the year well.  Back above 15,000

and the prices in Caribbean Coast has certain firmed a little:

12/01/2008 : 56.92 : 54.99  / $2,500e
12/08/2008 : 57.15 : 55.19  / $2,512
12/15/2008 : 56.71 : 54.77  / $2,541
12/22/2008 : 56.93 : 54.99  / $2,670e
12/29/2008 : 56.78 : 54.89  / $2,581

Not a huge move up, but an improvement nonetheless

Chart

[HPark]

SHKP:
"I think the property market in Hong Kong will improve in the first half of this year,
because there was an overcorrection in the second half of last year,"
said Victor Lui Ting, Exec. director at Sun Hung Kai Real Estate Agency

TAKE IT from whence it comes, but you never know...

[Zorro]

there was an item on tv the other night saying that turnover was up on low end apartments in the NT so I think the chart may be right. In other words if u want 2 buy in Tung Chung, start looking now and if u find something u like buy it as when it is obvious to the masses that the prices are going up u wont b able 2 buy at these levels.

Have a look at the midland realty web site, sales turnover for last week was as follows:

16/01/09 Flat A, Floor 47, Block 3, Caribbean Coast  Sell HK$3.66 M  1274 Sq.Ft. @HK$2,873 Registry
 
16/01/09 Flat H, Floor 40, Block 15, Caribbean Coast  Sell HK$3.75 M  1228 Sq.Ft. @HK$3,054 Registry
 
16/01/09 Flat G, Floor 46, Block 6, Caribbean Coast  Sell HK$2.58 M  1000 Sq.Ft. @HK$2,580 Registry
 



16/01/09 Flat C, Floor 58, Block 10, Caribbean Coast  Sell HK$2.24 M  749 Sq.Ft. @HK$2,988 Registry
 
16/01/09 Flat A, Floor 47, Block 3, Caribbean Coast  Sell HK$3.66 M  1274 Sq.Ft. @HK$2,873 Registry
 
15/01/09 Flat E, Floor 52, Block 8, Caribbean Coast  Sell HK$1.85 M  728 Sq.Ft. @HK$2,541 Registry

[HPark]

For HK stocks, it looks like a re-test of November lows is comimg



see: GEI-N.com